Case Study: Starting Bankroll 500 USD
If you had followed every FoxBetz alert with the strategies below, here's what your bankroll would look like today.
Conservative (Flat 2%)
540 USD
10 USD per bet · +8.0% ROI · +40 USD
Quarter Kelly (Recommended)
573 USD
Sized to each bet's edge · +14.7% ROI · +73 USD
Aggressive (Flat 4%)
580 USD
20 USD per bet · +16.0% ROI · +80 USD
Bankroll Over Time
Quarter Kelly Bet-by-Bet
| # | Date | Match | Bet | Odds | Stake | Result | P/L | Bankroll |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2026-04-07 | Arka Gdynia vs Zagłębie Lubin | Away Win | 3.40 | 30.30 USD | LOSS | -30.30 USD | 469.70 USD |
| 2 | 2026-04-07 | Arka Gdynia vs Zagłębie Lubin | Under 2.5 | 1.98 | 12.45 USD | LOSS | -12.45 USD | 457.25 USD |
| 3 | 2026-04-10 | Wisła Płock vs Lechia Gdańsk | Home Win | 3.00 | 10.70 USD | WIN | +21.40 USD | 478.65 USD |
| 4 | 2026-04-10 | Korona Kielce vs Jagiellonia Białystok | Home Win | 2.70 | 11.10 USD | LOSS | -11.10 USD | 467.55 USD |
| 5 | 2026-04-10 | Korona Kielce vs Jagiellonia Białystok | Under 2.5 | 2.22 | 12.30 USD | WIN | +15.00 USD | 482.55 USD |
| 6 | 2026-04-11 | Widzew Łódź vs Nieciecza | Under 2.5 | 2.12 | 17.28 USD | WIN | +19.35 USD | 501.90 USD |
| 7 | 2026-04-11 | Zagłębie Lubin vs Radomiak Radom | Home Win | 2.80 | 32.12 USD | WIN | +57.82 USD | 559.72 USD |
| 8 | 2026-04-11 | Legia Warszawa vs Górnik Zabrze | Under 2.5 | 1.87 | 15.78 USD | WIN | +13.73 USD | 573.45 USD |
Methodology
- Conservative (Flat 2%): Bet a fixed 10 USD on every alert. Lowest variance, safest approach.
- Quarter Kelly: Stake size scales with the model's confidence (edge × 0.25). Optimal long-term growth, more variance.
- Aggressive (Flat 4%): Bet a fixed 20 USD on every alert. Higher returns but bigger swings.
⚠️ Sample size warning: Results based on a small number of settled bets. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The xG model backtested at +14.5% ROI across 292 historical bets — that's the more reliable estimate.