How to Bet - FoxBetz

How FoxBetz Works

FoxBetz scans Ekstraklasa matches daily at 9:00 AM and finds value bets — situations where our model's probability is higher than what the bookmaker's odds imply. When the edge exceeds 7%, you get an alert.

Step 1: Set Your Bankroll

Your bankroll is the total amount of money you've set aside exclusively for betting. This is money you can afford to lose completely.

        Rule: Never bet with money you need for rent, food, or bills. Your bankroll should be "fun money" only.
    

Common starting bankrolls: 100 USD, 500 USD, 1000 USD. Pick an amount, write it down, and stick with it.

Step 2: Understanding the Alert

When FoxBetz finds a value bet, you'll see something like this:

Lech Poznan vs GKS Katowice

Market: Over/Under — Over 2.5

Best Odds: 2.27 (1xBet)

Model Probability: 52.2%

Edge: +8.1%

Suggested Stake: 3.6% of bankroll (Quarter-Kelly)

The key number is the Suggested Stake %. This tells you how much of your current bankroll to bet.

Step 3: Calculate Your Stake

Multiply the suggested percentage by your current bankroll (not your starting amount).

Example: Starting bankroll 500 USD

Bet #	Current Bankroll	Bot Says	Your Stake	Result	New Bankroll
1	500.00 USD	3.5% @ 2.12	17.50 USD	WIN +19.60 USD	519.60 USD
2	519.60 USD	6.4% @ 2.80	33.25 USD	LOSS -33.25 USD	486.35 USD
3	486.35 USD	2.8% @ 1.98	13.62 USD	WIN +13.35 USD	499.70 USD

        Key insight: Notice how after Bet 1 wins, Bet 2 uses 519.60 USD (not 500). After Bet 2 loses, Bet 3 uses 486.35 USD. Your stake always adjusts to your current bankroll — bigger after wins, smaller after losses. This is what makes Kelly staking powerful: you compound gains and protect against losses.
    

Quick Reference: Stake per Bankroll Size

Don't want to do math? Here's a cheat sheet for common bankroll sizes.

Bot Says	100 USD	250 USD	500 USD	1000 USD	2000 USD
1.5%	1.50	3.75	7.50	15.00	30.00
2.0%	2.00	5.00	10.00	20.00	40.00
3.0%	3.00	7.50	15.00	30.00	60.00
4.0%	4.00	10.00	20.00	40.00	80.00
5.0%	5.00	12.50	25.00	50.00	100.00
6.0%	6.00	15.00	30.00	60.00	120.00
8.0%	8.00	20.00	40.00	80.00	160.00

Values in USD. Remember: use your CURRENT bankroll, not your starting amount.

Multiple Bets on the Same Day

If the bot finds 3 value bets on the same matchday:

        Calculate all stakes from the same bankroll. Don't wait for one to settle before placing the next. All bets on the same day use the same starting number.
    

Example: bankroll is 500 USD, bot finds 3 bets at 3%, 2%, and 4%.

Bet A: 500 x 3% = 15.00 USD
Bet B: 500 x 2% = 10.00 USD
Bet C: 500 x 4% = 20.00 USD

After all three settle, update your bankroll with the combined result. Use the new number for the next day's bets.

Flat Staking (Alternative)

If Quarter-Kelly feels complicated, you can use flat staking instead:

Conservative: Bet 2% of your starting bankroll on every alert (e.g. 10 USD on a 500 USD bankroll)
Aggressive: Bet 4% of your starting bankroll (e.g. 20 USD on a 500 USD bankroll)

Flat staking is simpler but doesn't compound as well. The bot's Quarter-Kelly suggestion is the recommended approach for long-term growth.

Where to Place Bets

FoxBetz tells you which bookmaker has the best odds. The alert shows something like "Best Odds: 2.27 (1xBet)".

Licensed Polish bookmakers:

STS (sts.pl)
Fortuna (efortuna.pl)
Betclic (betclic.pl)
Superbet (superbet.pl)
Betfan (betfan.pl)
LV BET (lvbet.pl)

        Important: Always compare odds across bookmakers before placing. The bot shows the best odds at scan time, but odds move — by the time you bet, another bookie might be higher. Grab the best available.
    

Timing

Alerts go out at 9:00 AM daily.
Place your bets as soon as you see the alert. Odds move throughout the day — early = better odds.
Never bet after kickoff (obviously).
If the odds have dropped significantly since the alert, the edge may no longer exist. Skip it.

Common Mistakes

Chasing losses

After a losing streak, resist the urge to increase stakes. Quarter-Kelly automatically reduces your stake as your bankroll shrinks — trust the system.

Skipping "boring" bets

An Under 2.5 bet at 1.95 odds might not be exciting, but if the model says there's a 12% edge, it's a better bet than a flashy 5.00 odds bet with 3% edge. The edge is what matters, not the payout.

Betting with money you can't afford to lose

Even with a +18% yield model, you WILL have losing streaks. The backtest shows drawdowns of 15-20% are normal. If a 100 USD loss would stress you out, your bankroll is too big.

Not tracking results

FoxBetz tracks everything automatically. Check the All Bets page and Case Study regularly. If the model stops performing, you'll see it in the numbers.

About the Model

FoxBetz uses an ensemble model combining:

Poisson Model (80%) — estimates expected goals per team using xG (expected goals) data with exponential time decay. Computes scoreline probabilities for every possible result (0-0 through 6-6).
XGBoost (20%) — gradient-boosted ML model using rolling form, head-to-head records, days of rest, and shot statistics. Calibrated with isotonic regression.

The model is retrained daily on the latest data. xG data refreshes weekly from an open-source dataset.

        Backtest result: +18.0% yield across 307 walk-forward predictions at 7% minimum edge. This means for every 100 USD staked following the bot's suggestions, you'd expect to profit about 18 USD on average over the long run.
    

Past performance does not guarantee future results. Bet responsibly. 18+.